✍️ Weekly Trade Plan & Recap 14th - 19th Apr
Why now is the time to take some profit on Metals. Did Iran's attack against Israel just create a buying opportunity in Cryptos? Plus analysis on the DXY, EUR/USD, Metals, S&P 500 & Nasdaq.
Last Week
Last week Gold, Silver and Copper reached key Supply levels and I advised members that we may see a deep pullback.
This wasn’t too concerning as we only hold 10% of our initial Gold and Silver long positions and 50% Copper long that were opened last year - see previous newsletters for a history of that!
There was also the unusual situation of the Dollar, metals and USD/JPY all moving up together and breaking correlations.
So, while waiting for the market to tip it’s hand on metals, we kept ourselves amused by trading US equity indices.
There were 3 trades, of which two were wins on the S&P and one was a loss on the Nasdaq.
Let’s see how they played out…
S&P 500 Long
This was a Bear Trap (i.e. long) at confluence of Demand and Price Pivot Zones.
Initially, we were looking for a target of Supply at 5208. However, price made a wick at the red resistance line and at that point we scaled 50% profit, moving the stoploss to breakeven.
The market later confirmed we were right to be cautious and the remaining 50% of the trade was taken out at breakeven for an overall profit.
Side note: The market did eventually climb back to the original 5208 target the next day, however price action did not signal a setup.
Nasdaq Short
The next trade was a short at confluence of Supply and a Price Pivot Zone.
That trade shot through the Supply level and we took a loss.
Would I take the trade again? Absolutely - it was a strong level that just so happened to fail.
Accepting losses and a word about trading psychology
No names here because I respect everyone’s privacy, but a member decided to hold the trade past the stoploss in the hope that it would turn around. And in fact it did eventually turn around the following day.
However, there are two problems with this:
The market may not have turned around and you may feel that you can keep widening your stop or add to your losing position (Martingaling) until your entire account is wiped out!
Because the market gave you a reward (a win) for the misdemeanor of not accepting your stoploss, you have now started to hard-wire the neural pathways in your brain to not accept losses.
So, an important note to all members: If you are doing this, I recommend taking immediate action not to repeat these problems before they become ingrained habits.
S&P Short
The last trade of the week was an S&P short, again at a key level of confluence.
We scaled profit at various points along the way, with the final profit scale just before close of business on Friday. Here’s the chart showing the final scale:
Ripple (XRP/USDT)
I took a loss on my Ripple position on Saturday night due to crypto markets reacting to Iran’s attack on Israel.
As news spread that Iran were sending 200 drones and 120 ballistic missiles to attack Israel, crypto markets dropped steeply, taking out my stoploss on Ripple.
This morning we woke to the news that Israel had foiled the attack with no casualties and now I see an excellent buying opportunity in Cryptos.
We’ll go into detail on that later.
Gold, Silver, Copper.
Despite the confusion with broken correlations earlier in the week, metals closed the week with a negative signal that indicate we may see a deep pullback.
This may surprise some, but we’ll cover metals in the members section of this newsletter, plus analysis on the DXY, EUR/USD, S&P, Nasdaq, Bitcoin, Cardano and Theta. 👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼
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