✍️Weekly Trade Plan & Recap 4th - 9th May
Here's Why The Dollar Could Be Ready To Rocket! 🚀Plus in-depth analysis for the EUR/USD, Gold, Silver, Copper, WTI Oil, S&P 500 and Bitcoin and a warning on Crypto Alts.
With Trump imposing global tariffs and China playing their best poker face, you’re probably wondering what will happen to the US Dollar?
While the fundamentals may confuse, the technical picture on the trading charts is much clearer…
Look at the Dollar Index weekly chart and notice the boxed range that starts way back in November 2022.
The market broke up and breached the range last December after Trump won the US Election. Price turned just before Supply and dropped right back inside the range when Trump announced Tariffs in February.
That started a downward descent to the bottom of the range, with a small pause at the Price Pivot Zone (PPZ).
What’s interesting here are the rejection wicks and Pinbar through the bottom of the range into Demand.
Notice the Pinbar has breached to the upside - this is a simple bullish signal for candlestick traders. However, we want to see more than that to confirm our bias!
And that is where the 4 hour chart comes in…
Notice the bearish structure to the left of the chart which consists of Bear Channels, lower lows/lower highs and the market generally stair-stepping down.
Now look at the middle of the chart, where the (circled) Pinbar shows as a “V” shaped rejection on this timeframe.
This is followed by a Bull Channel, a higher high and a railway track reversal after Friday’s Non Farm Payrolls.
In other words, we are starting to see bullish structure/price action and a move back to the PPZ at 103.66 is a high probability. What I would like to see next is a hold above the key 100 level.
Why would the US Dollar reverse while nothing has changed fundamentally since February?
That, we will only know in hindsight. But one thing is for sure… technical analysis often gives us an early heads-up before the fundamental reason is known.
More about the US Dollar in the members section below.
Next up, we’ll take an in-depth look at last week’s trades, plus analysis for the EUR/USD, Gold, Silver, WTI Oil, S&P 500 and Bitcoin in the members section below.